Great advice for CIO’s on Twitter

Twitter_bird_logo_2012.svgOver on the Enterprisers Project, David A. Bray, the CIO of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), was recently interviewed about his use of Twitter.  The interview is a very nice read about how one CIO uses Twitter to engage and share information.

What I found most intriguing about Bray’s use of Twitter is that he’s not following an agenda set by his marketing or PR group. He’s using Twitter to truly engage with others and share information about what the FCC is doing within their IT operations. When setting up his Twitter account, Bray says that he “wanted to be able to engage, listen, and learn from the public and IT peers as we worked to modernize FCC’s legacy IT systems.”

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard people talk about creating a twitter account for the purposes of ‘building the brand’.  Now, there’s nothing wrong with using  Twitter for brand management and improvement, but there absolutely must be a human face and voice behind that account. Without that human voice, the account can quickly be relegated to the ‘noise’ on Twitter.  From what I can see, David Bray has built his Twitter account and following by being nothing but personable and engaging with his own voice rather than the stuffy, buttoned up voice of the government and/or a PR machine.

From the interview, Bray shared these thoughts on advice for other CIO’s on Twitter:

When it comes to social media, pick a few channels to invest in, learn from, and monitor. You don’t have to be everywhere, because your hours are limited and you need to focus on your primary job foremost. Be open to inputs and ideas from the public, your peers, and other stakeholders. Social media is much more than “broadcast” – it’s about being open to ideas, learning, and listening.

Great advice….and advice that I’ve decided to remember on a daily basis when I use Twitter.  For various reasons, I’ve gotten into the habit of ‘broadcasting’ on Twitter rather than engaging. I’m looking to change that in the coming days/weeks.

How about you. Are you broadcasting on Twitter or are you actually engaging?

My Doctoral Dissertation Final Defense – Almost done

I am now one step closer to finishing my doctorate. On Friday Oct 31, I defended my dissertation. The video of the presentation during the defense is provided below. I now only have to get a few documents signed and format my dissertation for publishing and I’ll be completely finished.

The title of my dissertation is: “Analysis of Twitter Messages for Sentiment and Insight for use in Stock Market Decision Making.”

The video is a bit over 1 hour and 12 minutes long. I cut out the question and answer session for the sake of brevity.

Using Twitter Sentiment in the Stock Market from Eric D Brown on Vimeo.

This video is a copy of my Doctoral Dissertation defense. The topic: Analysis of Twitter Messages for Sentiment and Insight for use in Stock Market Decision Making.

Dissertation Title: “Analysis of Twitter Messages for Sentiment and Insight for use in Stock Market Decision Making”

 

A look at Twitter messages in 2012 mentioning $SPY and S&P500 Symbols

twitter-bird-blue-on-whiteCross Posted at TradeTheSentiment.com

While working up my data analysis chapter of my dissertation, I came across some interesting tidbits of information and thought I’d share.

Nothing here is earth-shattering and there’s not much I (or you) can do with this…but I thought it interesting and hope someone else out there does too. I’ve shared other findings before – and continue to share my daily Bear/Bull Ratio via my Trade The Sentiment site, which is an outcome of this research.

For the data collection phase of my dissertation, I collected Twitter messages for all stocks in the S&P500 index and the SPY ETF itself.  There are many great pieces of knowledge that I’ve gathered from this work – some I’ve shared but most I won’t share because I need something to put into the dissertation. 🙂

So…here’s some data that you might find interesting (or maybe you won’t). Without further ado – and without interpretation, here you go:

SPY and all symbols in S&P 500 Index

Dates: Jan 1 – Dec 30 2012

  • Number of Twitter Messages Captured: 1,655,962
  • Number of Symbols: 501 (S&P 500 + SPY)
  • Number of days messages captured: 361
  • Number of Twitter users: 224,499
  • Average Messages per day: 4,587.15
  • Average Messages per user: 7.38
  • Date with Highest message volume: December 5 2012
  • Symbol with most Mentions: AAPL (620,964 messages or 37.5% of messages)
  • Symbol with most Bearish Mentions: AAPL with 98,402 messages with bearish sentiment
  • Symbol with most Bullish Mentions: AAPL with 78,353 messages with bullish sentiment
  • User with most Tweets: SeekingAlpha
  • Top 10 users account for 128,703 messages or 7.77% of messages
  • Top 25 users account for 197,878 messages or 11.95% of messages
  • Top 50 users account for 278,846 messages or 16.84% of messages
  • 50% of messages were sent by 849 Twitter users or 0.38% of users
  • 80% of messages were sent by 14,049 Twitter users or 12.27% of users

 Top 50 captured Twitter Users:

  1. SeekingAlpha
  2. BigTicks
  3. thefinancepress
  4. wallstCS
  5. CPUStocks
  6. gasoilstocks
  7. ADVFNplc
  8. MarketCurrents
  9. StockRecaps
  10. PerforM84697233
  11. TheStreet
  12. simplestockqtes
  13. Tradified
  14. SAI
  15. BigChipStocks
  16. pennystockguys
  17. DJThistle
  18. RetailerStocks
  19. TradingGuru
  20. boogidown
  21. USwwwStocks
  22. lluccipha
  23. MNYCx
  24. investorpoint
  25. takingstock614
  26. tradingview
  27. stockticks
  28. 1nvestor
  29. ForTraders
  30. FastFoodStocks
  31. StockTwits
  32. some_win
  33. ValueStocksNow
  34. PiggyStocks
  35. Insider_Trades
  36. 61point8
  37. BlueFielder
  38. tlmontana
  39. stockguy22
  40. Phil_Goodship
  41. LaMonicaBuzz
  42. Jamtrades
  43. businessinsider
  44. BUDDIEE18
  45. ZolmaxNews
  46. OneChicago
  47. olyant75
  48. onebrow1
  49. DeidreZune
  50. bored2tears

Cross Posted at TradeTheSentiment.com

Innovation & The CIO – A twitter chat summary #CIOInnovate

twitter-bird-blue-on-whiteI had the pleasure of moderating / hosting a twitter chat yesterday (Tuesday April 30 2013) involving the topic of Innovation & the CIO using the hashtag #CIOInnovate.

The chat was sponsored by Dell and their Chief Innovation Officer Jim Stikeleather (‏@stikeyoda) joined the conversation and provided some excellent insight and feedback on the topic of innovation and the CIO / IT group.

The prepared questions for the chat were:

  • 1. How is your role as CIO evolving? How much of what you do today revolves around the business and innovation?
  • 2. What conversation is the C-suite having around innovation? How does that conversation need to change?
  • 3. When it comes to innovation, how are IT investment decisions made? Is value creation for the customer a driver?
  • 4. How is IT enabling customer value with technology? How are you delivering & keeping up with the tech behind innovation?

The chat was sort of a last minute idea but I think it turned out well.

We had a number of folks join the chat and had some great conversations on the topic of innovation and the role of the IT group and CIO in driving / managing innovation.

In addition to Jim’s input, we had some other great folks join in on the chat including:

Jump over and follow these folks if you don’t already…they are great follows. Apologies for those folks that I missed

As mentioned, the chat was lively and informative with great conversations and insights.

One of the main questions that hit home with me was how deeply CIO’s are involved with innovation.  One question from Bryan Oak stands out in this regard. It is :

#CIOInnovate Q2 I’m not sure that many CIOs are talking Innovation ?

— Bryan Oak (@LIBACAS) April 30, 2013

It was a great question.

Are CIO’s talking about innovation?

I know some that are…and many that aren’t.  Many are trying to just keep things running while others have been able to get ahead of the curve and are looking for ways to help the organization innovate. A few CIO’s that I know are the driving force for innovation within the organization.

While I haven’t exactly pinpointed the ‘one thing’ that makes the difference in IT groups that are operationally focused versus those that are more strategically focus, I do believe one aspect that makes a difference is the ability of the CIO to step away from the ‘operations’ and start focusing on the big picture. But…how does a CIO make that happen? That’s the question of the day….it requires a more strategic ability and capability.  It requires the organization to allow them to focus on providing services rather than being a tool to ‘get things done’.

For the CIO to be involved in innovation, they and the IT Group need to turn themselves into consultants to the business. They’ve got to be the folks that people come to for advice…not just a team of people that implement and manage technology.  The CIO of the future needs to not only be the chief information officer, but the chief innovation officer and chief technology officer with a little bit of chief marketing technology officer rolled into one.  No longer can the CIO sit in the data center and watch bits and bytes – they’ve got to lead the organization into the future with innovative technology and services.

When you get a a chance, check out the #CIOInnovate stream….you’ll see some very smart folks talking about some of the most important topics that CIO’s are facing today.

It was a great hour long chat about some very interesting topics…I’ll be looking for more opportunities to have more of these conversations in the future.

Using Twitter Sentiment for Intraday Signals

This is a cross-post from Trade The Sentiment. Originally published as Using Twitter Sentiment for Intraday Signals.

While most of my research on Twitter Sentiment has been for use on larger time-frames (Daily, Weekly, etc), I’ve been very curious about using sentiment for intraday signals.

I finally found some time to hack together a script that would look at sentiment data intraday…and now i’m a bit unhappy that I did…because I’m fascinated with the intraday signals I’m seeing.

An Example

On Feb 25, we saw a nice little sell-off. The S&P500 gapped up to open the day and sold off for the remainder of the day for a loss of almost 38 points on the $SPX.

The following day, Feb 26, saw another move down until about mid-day when the markets ‘turned’ and started heading up…and we saw a retrace of about 40 points over the next three days.

Everyone seemed to be looking for a breakdown on Feb 25 and Feb 26 but it didn’t happen.

As luck would have it, over the weekend I had built my script to look at intraday sentiment.  It was a quick hack (like most of my stuff) that allowed me to run a quick query to see what sentiment looks like at time “now”.     On Feb 25, I was occasionally calling out the the intraday sentiment values in @gtotoy’s trading room over at DayTraderBootCamp (you should join if you aren’t a member…some GREAT traders there).

As the day wore on, I was noticing the sentiment was getting much more bearish…to the extent that it was in ‘bearish extreme’ levels by a large margin. At one point, the sentiment for the day was around 1.5 or so (1.0 is neutral, anything over 1.25 is considered a bearish extreme).

Twitter users were extremely bearish on the market on Feb 25 and the morning of Feb 26.  On Feb 26th at 9:30 Central and again at 11:30 Central, there were 2 large bearish sentiment spikes…those times marked the same times that we saw the bottom in the market on that day (looking at at 15 minute chart).

At the time, I didn’t have the sentiment loaded up into a platform to view it against price action…but I’ve since fixed that.

Take a look at the following….a chart showing a 15 minute candle chart of SPY Action (in green), Intraday Sentiment sampled in 15 minute increments (in Orange) and the 21 period EMA of the Intraday Sentiment (in Magenta).

You’ll notice that the sentiment chart is fairly noisy…but the 21 EMA is much cleaner and provides a couple nice ‘signals’ over the last few weeks. On the 21 EMA chart (bottom pane), you’ll see a Red oval that highlights a Sell signal with Bullish Extreme on Feb 19  and a Green oval that highlights a Buy Signal on Feb 25 / 26th with Bearish Extreme readings).

Note:  a few days of data don’t make something useful.  It could be pure happenstance that the below signals did what they did…but I’ll  be looking at more historical data to see what I can find.

Click image for larger version

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Comparing Twitter Sentiment vs Random Numbers for Entry Signals

This is a cross-post from Trade The Sentiment

One of the concerns that I have of my research into using Twitter Sentiment for entry signals in the market has been that the market has, in general, been in an up-trend over the last year.   With that up-trend, there’s a good change that any entry, made enough times over the course of the year, would have resulted in a profitable trading year.

So…I developed a basic random number generation script in Python that generates a random signal between 0 and 2 to try to mimic the ranges found in the overall market bear/bull sentiment.

With this random signal, I then used the same strategy for an entry signal used in my Twitter Sentiment entries.   The comparisons are below

Trading Rules

  • Enter when Bearish Extreme found in Raw Bear/Bull when Sentiment (or Random Signal) > 1.1
  • Buy 500 Shares of the SPY ETF. This strategy is Long Only.
  • Hold for 6 trading Days.
  • Timeframe: Nov 1 2011 to Nov 30 2012
  • Commission = $10
  • Slippage = $0.05 per share

Using Tradestation, I ran my strategy with both the Twitter Sentiment Signal and the Random Signal without optimizing any of the strategy inputs.  Both systems closed out their last trade before Friday so no trades are held.

The outcome of both systems are provided below.  Below the table, I’ve provided the

Note: The Buy and Hold Rate of Returns are different due to the date of the first trade made by each system. Trade #1 for Random Signals was taken on Nov 9 2011 while Trade #1 for the Twitter Sentiment was taken on Nov 14 2011.

Based on this particular test, I’d say the twitter sentiment entry signals are much more robust and accurate. This signal delivers more profit, more return and much less drawdown than the random signals entries.

Each strategy’s entry / exits are shown in the graphs below.

Twitter Sentiment Signals

Random Signals Entries

This is a cross-post from Trade The Sentiment